Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Case Fatality Rate for Avian Flu is 80.6% in Indonesia

Disturbing news from the Indonesian Ministry of Health that says 80% of the people who contract H5N1 Avian Influenza (AI), will die from from the infection:

"Four AI New Cases at the End of January

29 Jan 2008

Entering last week in January 2008, there are 4 more AI cases, based on RT PCR (Real Time Polimerase Chain Reaction) test in laboratories of National Institute of Health Research & Development (Balitbangkes) MOH and Eijkman Molecular Biological Institute. Those 4 cases are Nas (Tangerang District, Banten), MIY (Depok, West Java), and Res and Vir (both from East Jakarta).

Since the first case found in mid July 2005, number of AI cases in Indonesia by January 28, 2008 reaches 124 cases with 100 of them dead. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is 80.6%."

Some have argued that the CFR for AI is skewed because there may be many instances where nonfatal AI is not reported or mistakenly diagnosed as seasonal influenza. Dr. Niman @ Recombinomics has stated that high CFR rates for AI are not inflated and presents an elegant argument here.

Putting these numbers in perspective:

How does this relate to a possible pandemic? Nobody knows for sure, but informed calculations project that assuming a clinical attack rate of 25%, a pandemic could kill 1.7 million Americans. The assumed CFR for this projection is 2.3%.

1 comment:

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